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NBA: Role players are the wagering key in Game 4
2008-06-12
The tape of Game 3 of the NBA Finals between Boston and Los Angeles won’t be sent to the Basketball Hall of Fame, with a grand total of four players scoring in double figures and the total coming in 27.5-points below projected oddsmakers’ number. Game 4 offers new and exciting wagering opportunities, including a 7-point spread on which 72% of early bettors are backing the underdog Celtics.
Regardless of how it looked, the series picked up some juice with the Lakers winning, meaning everyone is able to stay the weekend in Los Angeles and maybe head down the coast and catch a little U.S. Open golf action. Kobe Bryant finally stepped up his game with 36 points and no way L.A. wins without the 20 from Sasha Vujacic. For Boston, this had to be mildly disheartening, Ray Allen is starting to place like the guy who wore a Seattle and Milwaukee uniform previously, but Paul Pierce managed to miss 14 of 16 shot attempts.
Before pressing on, this 2-3-2 format is proven how stupid it really is this season. ESPN’s John Barry was quoted after Game 3 (as was Phil Jackson) saying he thought it was a jet lag game. Neither team was sharp from flying cross country. Fair enough, then why will their be two games in this series played with two days of rest in the same city, with potentially another cross-country flight with just one day between the sports most important games?
Game Four of the series will be about who shows up to make a meaningful contribution. In the boxscore, Lamar Odom is listed as PF, commonly known as power forward and Vlad Radmanovic is shown as SF, a shooting forward. Odom has was once again a non-factor, shooting 2-9 and seldom in position to make positive plays, yet maybe in his case, the PF stands for personal fouls, since he picked up five again. Vlad Rad saw his minutes fall to 13, as his defensive deficiencies are visibly noticed and his lack of offense (3 points) can not overcome.
If the Lakers expect to improve upon 11-3-1 ATS record off a win, both of those players along with Pau Gasol and Derek Fisher have to play with more aplomb. Gasol has been as soft as a marshmallow in the middle, making his chest-thumping appear comical, when like an NFL cornerback burned six times in a row, jumps up to celebrate after he made a big hit on receiver 20 yards down the field. Coming into the Finals, it was thought Fisher’s experience would create an edge over the Celtics Rajon Rondo, it hasn’t. If the Lakers expect to make this a best two of three, the aforementioned four individuals have to bring their game and attitude to Staples Center for Los Angeles to win and move to 9-3 ATS as home favorites.
For all the good Rondo had done in Boston, he was discombobulated when Bryant started Game 3 guarding him. He was unable to get into the flow thereafter, before rolling is ankle, making him questionable for tonight. This becomes a real issue for the Celtics, since Rondo whole game is based on quickness and speed, without these traits, Sam Cassell and Eddie House are next options, suggesting these slow afoot, shoot-first point guards may see greater ball pressure from the Lakers, as well as double-teaming to force them to make snap judgments. Coach Doc Rivers will need to implore his back-ups to get the ball over half court quicker, since on average, the Celtics start their offensive sets just under three seconds slower when Rondo is not in the game in this series. How this trio plays tonight, will go a long way in determining what Boston’s 3-7 ATS road record will be after the game.
For the C’s to rebound in Game 4, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett can not play the same again. Pierce played like was pushing too hard, trying to prove to posse; he was California cool, while showing street toughness being back home on the big stage. Look for him to be more relaxed, after practicing a few gang signs. Boston is 29-12 against the spread on the road after playing as an underdog and Garnett personally let a golden opportunity slip thru his fingers. Garnett was 6-21, totaling 13 points. When he set up shop in or near the lane, the less athletic Gasol is rendered useless to stop him. When he drifted out on the perimeter as he often prefers to, coach Phil Jackson could have gotten Radmanovic more minutes.
When asked after Game 3 why he didn’t demand the ball more in the post, since the Celtics offense is more fluid, Garnett responded, "...Hell, if I knew that, I would have done it ... Obviously in the course of a game you try to mix things up ... but for the most part, I watched this game ... But you're right. I probably do need to take the ball to the basket a little more." Just think about how good he would have been playing with Michael Jordan as second fiddle.
As expected, a win by the favorite means the number goes down and the Lakers are 7.5-point favorites with Total having dipped to 191 at Sportsbook.com. The Celtics have covered each contest in this series and are 8-1 ATS when underdogs in the 5-10 point range. Los Angeles has yet to cover versus the C’s in five tries this season.
Even with the total dropping, coach Rivers club is 14-6 UNDER as a road underdog this season, while L.A. is 16-4 UNDER after a win by six points or less this season.
Expect the stars to shine with tipoff set for 9:05 Eastern, since they will ultimately decide Game 4, however it will be the other players for both teams that will put these individuals in position to be adored.
StatFox Power Line – Lakers by 5
NBA: Betting Lakers might require strong stomach (9:05 PM, ABC)
2008-06-10
Heading back to Los Angeles, it was the Lakers who were supposed to be in control of the
NBA Finals’ series. Instead, it’s the Celtics up 2-0 and threatening to blow the series wide open. Oddsmakers apparently haven’t taken notice, installing the hosts as 9-1/2 point chalk, much to the delight of 71% of early bettors, who are backing Boston against the spread.
Remember being in pre-school or first grade or possibly with your children; playing games were you had to come up with answers to teachers questions? The idea was to you as a child or anyone, come up with a list of answers to individual questions. It could be a fascinating topic, often not thinking of the answers others would happen to think of. For example, if the question would be, what are things that are soft, thoughts like pillows, ice cream, and a rabbit come to mind or for more creative types, the sun setting on a placid lake. For this composite list of soft things, add the Los Angeles Lakers.
Bettors universally assumed the Lakers and Kobe Bryant in particular would be spitting venom in Game 2, and took Los Angeles from opening line of +2, all the way to -1.5 at tipoff. Instead, the Lakers were like a big dog asleep on his back. From the beginning of the second quarter, until the start of the last stanza, they were “out” every-thing(ed) by Boston. Out- shot, rebounded, passed, dunked, defended and most importantly out-hustled. The Celtics won the middle portion of the game 63-39, in dominating fashion.
Thou Paul Gasol’s numbers show 17 points and 10 rebounds, not one of those figures were critical and thus far it is obvious the Spaniard couldn’t box out a statue of John Quincy Adams. Evidently teams never ran a pick and roll, free throw line extended against the Memphis Grizzlies, since Gasol is alarming out of position, leaving the baseline wide open, explaining how Rajon Rando could have 16 assists in game two.
Boston has played like a team wanting a championship, bringing lunch pale and getting into defensive stance. They have double-teamed Bryant at every opportunity and not one other player in a purple uniform stepped up in first two contests. Lamar Odom has been out of position on both ends of the floor and is playing more confused than useful. If Los Angeles is not to fall to 8-19
ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, coach Phil Jackson has to find players who can match the C’s thirst for excellence.
After last contest, Jackson had to say something about free throw disparity (38-10) and though a more than a few calls were questionable, the referee’s are human and Boston was so much more aggressive, they earned the right to have the official’s benefit of the doubt. The Lakers made reserve Leon Powe look like the perfect replacement for Kevin Garnett in the future; as he scored 21 points, but did it with what L.A. lacked, hustle and heart. The Celtics are 28-12
ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog.
In a somewhat curious twist, the oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com are banking on bettors and Lakers backers to support Los Angeles as 9.5-point favorites, with total of 195.5. No doubt the Lakers 8-0 (6-2 ATS) playoff record at Staples Center is impressive; nonetheless, the Celtics have won and covered all four meetings between these long-time rivals and the first two games before Jan. 1, seems like a moot point at present.
For Los Angeles to get back into series, defense is number one prerequisite. They can’t be so easily out of position and must button down gaping holes and not run out to open shooters, leaving chasms to basket. L.A. is 9-3-1
ATS after allowing 100 points or more. The bench must have more production, especially by Luke Walton, who has been a no-show thus far in the Finals. The Lakers keep falling into Boston’s preferred tempo, and need to make them play more uncomfortably. Send four players to defensive glass and have perimeter player on opposite side of where shot was taken, be a mid-court first pass option to force tempo. Finally, show gumption, the feeling in viewing the body language of L.A. is they are surprised Boston is as physically and mentally tougher than San Antonio.
The two teams combined to make 19 three-point shots in last encounter and with the Celtics 9-14 beyond the arc, they are 13-2
ATS after a game where they made 50 percent of their three-point shots or better this season. Doc Rivers will ask for same energy and 48 minutes to take commanding 3-0. If they maintain poise, they’ll just have to do what guitar legend Eric Clapton wrote about from his Cream of Clapton CD, the song - Blues Power, where the lyrics say, “Keep on, keep on, keep on keeping on.”
Game Three from downtown Los Angles starts a bit after 9 Eastern on ABC.
NBA: Bettors backing Spurs to fend off elimination
2008-05-30
Even though the Los Angeles Lakers won’t be singing Willie Nelson’s, “Turn out the lights the party’s over” song, they will be trying to turn out the dim hopes of San Antonio Spurs for this season. However, Sportsbook.com bettors like the visitors’ chances to win or at least make tonight’s Game 5 a close affair.
Much like somebody trying to get a drink after last call, the Spurs Brent Barry’s last ditch effort, came up empty. It’s back to La-La Land, where the stars will be brighter than ever, looking to bask in the glow of the Lakers advancing to the
NBA Finals.
It was unbelievable to watch Brent Barry get fouled on the game’s last play, (he did) and San Antonio not make a huge stink about it. The Spurs players were maybe too stunned to react and coach Greg Popovich’s infamous stare would zero impact. The fact remains, San Antonio had no business stealing that game, since they did little over the course of 48 minutes to do so.
After a brilliant Game 3, Manu Ginobili played like he just saw the premiere episode of Denise Richards reality TV-show, “It’s Complicated”. The Lakers defenders did a significantly better job of making the Argentinean go to his right and he was held to just seven points, which affected his defense also.
Though constantly double-teamed from different angles, Duncan scored 29 and grabbed 17 boards, yet he’ll be haunted by missing more one-foot shots (7) than a 10-year old at basketball camp. This situation does not set up well for San Antonio, with 24-25 record this season on the road, with only 18 covers.
What has changed from last year to this season for the Spurs to be in this predicament? Start with being one year older across the board. San Antonio knew they could beat weak-minded Phoenix, owned more experience than New Orleans, but the Lakers are different. They are long to clog up the middle; they have fresher and younger legs and have the only coach that can truly match wits with Popovich in Phil Jackson. The last point might be the most important, as teams or players age, they lack the ability to take it to the rim and finish. San Antonio’s best three players in the paint are Duncan, Ginobili and Tony Parker, the latter two being guards. The rest of the roster is essentially jump-shooters, leaving the team at the mercy of how they shoot. When L.A. has clogged the paint to stop everyone but Mr. Fundamental, they’ve won.
The Lakers are 7-0 (5-2 ATS) at the Staples Center in the postseason and are the last team still playing not to lose on the home hardwood. Los Angeles is up to 10-2-1
ATS after a straight up win and coach Jackson has again adroitly used his roster to the team’s advantage. He knows his club has a speed and quickness edge in this series. Jackson makes great adjustments, but more importantly, he knows almost immediately what he will receive from his bench players. Vlade Radmanovic has played exceptional at times; Sasha Vujacic has played extended minutes when he shoots well and Jordan Farmar has been defensive dynamo in short spurts. Though his minutes will vary greatly depending on opposition, Luke Walton was a big contributor off the pine in Game 4.
The Lakers opened as 7.5-point favorites at Sportsbook.com and were quickly bet up to eight. It would be foolish beyond comprehension to believe San Antonio will just show up and play like the Memphis Grizzlies. This team and whole organization is too proud and has the heart of a champion and is 14-5 against the spread in Conference Finals for a reason. They will have to be contrarian to what they have been all season, with 2-10
ATS mark in road games after playing two consecutive home games this season.
All four games in this series have gone Under to total and linemakers have established Game 5 at 193.5. Los Angeles is 8-2 UNDER after a win and San Antonio has played UNDER in last six games with a day’s rest.
TNT will broadcast this potential closing game, starting at 9 Eastern, with the Lakers 9-23
ATS in home games off a road win by three points or less, with winning margin 3.6 points.
StatFox Power Line- L.A. Lakers by 5
NBA: Crazy series has bettors bewildered for Game 5
2008-05-29
It’s a good thing Detroit and Boston has come down to a best two-out-of-three, since based on the first four games, we’ve learned absolutely nothing to this point. Still, with the Celtics playing as a 5-point favorite in Game 5, nearly 75% of bettors believe the hosts will prevail this evening.
This series has featured more twists and turns than the “Mantis” at Cedar Point Amusement Park in northern Ohio. What nobody seems to know, even the coaches, what will happen next, making it a real gamble what choices bettors have to go thru in order to predict the correct side and total.
Detroit rolled the dice in Game four and they came up winners, thanks to Antonio McDyess. The former Denver Nugget, with the explosive high-flying game, saw that element disappear beginning in 2002, with three surgeries in 18 months. His willingness to fight back and remake his game is a constant source of inspiration with his teammates. McDyess scored 21 points, snared 16 rebounds (seven offensive) and played forceful defense to help the Pistons even the series. Rasheed Wallace most accurately described McDyess, “"Dice so far has been the best player in this series,". Detroit heads back to Boston 19-6
ATS after two or more consecutive Unders this season.
The expression, “no rest for the wicked” is on the nose for the Boston Celtics. The Celtics shot a playoff low 31.8 percent in last contest and were never in sync on either end of the floor. What McDyess brought, is what Boston lacked, energy and passion. The grind of the playoffs might be getting to Doc Rivers team, unable to put together back to back efforts in the East Finals. The Celts have now played 16 games in 31 days, all high intensity contests, causing not only physical fatigue, but mental as well. "I don't like to use the fatigue card,” Rivers said
“ ,but I don't think it's physical fatigue, but yes, from watching the film, there was some mental fatigue." Boston hopes playing at TD Northbank Garden will reenergize them and don’t fall prey to being 1-8
ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points this season.
In series such as this, Game Five will be critical. Boston is a six-point favorite, with Total presently at 173 at Sportsbook.com, matching the lowest figure since the series opener. This Eastern Conference final has been about one constituent, desire. If Kevin Garnett and the rest of his mates come to play, they’ll improve to 13-4
ATS playing at home. If the Detroit backcourt plays with the passion McDyess, they should win and move up to 8-1
ATS as a road underdog in the 5-10.5 point range.
This story will best be told by the veteran players. McDyess expressed to his teammates to take nothing for granted, since you never know when this is your last opportunity. Paul Pierce after hearing his quotes said this, “We don’t get this opportunity too much in our careers,” he said after practice. “We have to go out and play like it’s our last, because you never know when this is going to happen again. … We have to find some way, somehow to get a win at home and bring that momentum back to Detroit.”
ESPN picks up the coverage for Game Five starting at 8:35 Eastern, with the underdog 9-3
ATS in last dozen meetings.
StatFox Power Line- Boston by 1
